Contrarian Truth — Thiel's interview question: "What important truth do very few people agree with you on?" Startup edge ≠ doing consensus better; it = finding what consensus misses. A real contrarian truth needs both (a) strong evidence and (b) the market still believing the opposite. (a) without (b) = conventional wisdom; (b) without (a) = delusion. Bayesian framing: the market is a prior-aggregation engine — opportunity lives where that aggregate is miscalibrated.
AI Prompts
中文提示词
我目前在 [行业/赛道]。我相信的一条反共识观点是：[你的观点]。请：
① 列出主流为何持反方的最强 3 个论据；
② 评估我的证据是否真的反驳了这些论据；
③ 判断这是"反共识真理"还是"反共识幻觉"，并给出我接下来 30 天可做的 1 个验证实验。
English Prompt
I work in [industry/domain]. My contrarian belief: [your belief]. Please:
1. List the 3 strongest mainstream counter-arguments.
2. Assess whether my evidence actually refutes them.
3. Judge — genuine contrarian truth or contrarian fantasy? Give me one 30-day validation experiment I can run.
Zero to One vs One to N — Thiel: creating something new (vertical progress) is categorically different from copying what works (horizontal progress). Quick test: if a copycat must rebuild infrastructure to match you → 0→1; if they only need ad spend → 1→N. "Not yet quantifiable" is a feature of 0→1, not a bug. Don't apply 1→N metrics (KPIs, ROI, growth %) to 0→1 work, or 0→1 patience to 1→N execution.
AI Prompts
中文提示词
我的项目是 [项目描述]。请帮我判断：
① 它本质是 0→1 还是 1→N？最关键的判别证据是什么？
② 如果是 0→1，列出我目前误用的 1→N 标尺（如季度 KPI、ROI、增长率）；
③ 给出 3 个适合 0→1 阶段的替代信号（不依赖规模化数据）。
English Prompt
My project: [description]. Help me decide:
1. Is it fundamentally 0→1 or 1→N? What's the decisive evidence?
2. If 0→1, list the 1→N metrics I'm wrongly applying (quarterly KPIs, ROI, growth %).
3. Suggest 3 alternative signals that fit the 0→1 stage (not dependent on scale data).
创始人-市场契合 · Founder-Market Fit
VC 早期 bet 90% 是 bet on the founder, not the product
FMF 候选：① AI/分布式深度 + 学龄家长一线视角——"AI 如何赋能家庭学习"这个 niche，99% AI 创业者缺第二条、99% 教育创业者缺第一条；② 跨东西方哲学/佛学 + 工程背景——"东方智慧 × AI agent 设计"几乎无人同时持两层深度。识别信号：被反复问到的问题、两个领域都能 BS-detect、能让两边都不觉得 hand-wavy。
English Summary
Founder-Market Fit (FMF) ≠ product-market fit. It's the founder's structural edge over this specific market — domain depth, lived pain, rare access, network. Passion is a ticket, not FMF; you must know one dimension better than 99% of incumbents. FMF compounds — "insufficient now" is no objection if it deepens over 2–3 years. Strongest form = being the user (not "was the user" — markets evolve). FMF can come from pain rather than expertise.
AI Prompts
中文提示词
我想做 [市场/领域]。请审计我的 FMF：
① 我声称的"信息差"是真的还是错觉？请反问我直到我无法回答；
② 我 know 什么是 99% 玩家 doesn't know？标出我答案里最薄弱处；
③ 如果 FMF 不够强，给出 3 个 1-2 年内可构建 FMF 的具体路径。
English Prompt
I'm aiming at [market/domain]. Audit my founder-market fit:
1. Is my claimed information edge real or an illusion? Cross-examine me until I can't answer.
2. What do I know that 99% of players don't? Flag the weakest spots in my answer.
3. If FMF is insufficient, give 3 concrete 1–2 year paths to build it.
Netflix 2011 从 DVD 转流媒体并尝试拆分 Qwikster——股价 $300 跌到 $63，70% 用户愤怒，新闻一边倒看衰。Hastings 公开道歉但坚持核心方向。教科书 J：他清楚 DVD 业务的天花板、清楚流媒体先期成本必须吞下、清楚短期数据无法反映长期。3 年后股价超原高点 5 倍。
场景 · BigCat
① 转型 AI 超级个体是高 J——前 3-6 个月产出反降（学新工具、重建工作流、试错失败），同事用旧法在 KPI 上看似更强。事先承认这段下行的存在。② 育儿 J 极常见——从"代孩子做决定"换成"陪她学决策"，前几个月她做得肯定不如你直接代办，但你在投资她的 J 曲线。③ 系统化补量子力学/神经科学——前 2-3 个月脑里碎片化比"完全不学"还混乱。底部撤退是最大浪费——你已付的成本只有在曲线右半才能兑现。
English Summary
The J-Curve — any meaningful transition gets worse before it gets better. Output dips, then J-curves up. Most people quit at the bottom because "evidence" only shows the descent — the defining property of a J-curve is that the right half is invisible from below. Real-J vs bottomless-pit test: has anyone walked this curve? Is your descent within their known band? Depth ∝ how fundamental the change is. The trough coincides with maximum loss aversion + sunk-cost pull — understanding the J is the engineering lever against the retreat impulse.
AI Prompts
中文提示词
我正在做的转变是 [具体转变]，目前感觉变差了。请：
① 帮我估计这条 J 曲线（底部多深、底部维持多久、反弹形态）；
② 找 3 个走通过同类 J 曲线的真实先例，给出他们在底部时的关键决策；
③ 给我 3 个判别问题，区分"我还在 J 曲线内"vs"我走错方向了"。
English Prompt
I'm in a transition: [describe]. Things feel worse right now. Please:
1. Sketch the expected J-curve (depth, time at bottom, recovery shape).
2. Find 3 real precedents who walked the same J — what did they decide at the bottom?
3. Give me 3 diagnostic questions that distinguish "still inside the J" from "wrong direction entirely."